Strong Storm Brings Noreaster Conditions
Late Friday Night & Through the Weekend,
Subtropical Storm Development Possible
Strong Storm Brings Noreaster Conditions
Late Friday Night & Through the Weekend,
Subtropical Storm Development Possible
We continue to watch the area off the Southeast US Coast where lower than normal pressures and an upper air trough will allow a low to develop. In fact if we check satellite loops this morning it is clear that a mid level system is developing and we could soon see low pressure form and begin to intensify. Whether this becomes a tropical or subtropical storm really doesn’t matter all that much in terms of the weather we will see from this. Either way we are looking at what will be noreaster conditions developing Friday night and likely lasting on and off through Sunday. Overnight models including the European model loop above show a well developed surface low tracking to coastal North Carolina Friday and continue on a track northward from there.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
Before we have to deal with this storm system we have today and Friday where in Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England, we have no issues. High pressure is over the Northeast and this will mean another nice sunny day today. Highs will be in the 70s. The radars will be nice and quiet through much of the Eastern Seaboard.
Tonight skies will be mostly clear with lows in the 50s inland and lower 60s along the coast. Friday we will see sunshine giving way to arriving clouds from south to north. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s and we will have a northeast wind that will pick up slighlty later in the day.
During the day Friday the low pressure center off the Southeast US coast will head northwestward toward the South Carolina/North Carolina coastline and intensifying. As we mentioned earlier, whether this becomes a tropical storm or a subtropical storm or not makes no real difference in the resulting weather. For much of the Mid Atantic and Northeast, it will behave like a noreaster.
Friday night into Saturday rain moves up the coast and overspreads the area from southwest to northeast. The low takes a track over Eastern North Carolina and then moves northward toward Chesapeake Bay Saturday night and Sunday. This will prolong cloudy rainy conditions through Sunday though we will probably see a break in the rainfall at some point later Saturday and then start up again Sunday.
Rainfall forecast amounts on the European model is in the 2 to 3 inch range but this is spread out over 2 1/2 days so that at least helps when it comes to localized flash flooding. What we need to be careful of is a large area of heavy rain that will will be moving northward Friday night and then sliding just to the south and east and offshore. If we can avoid that lead shot of heavy rain that will move up the coast, it will lessen the risk for localized flash flooding.
The gradient will get very tight later Friday night into Early Sunday morning and we will see northeast winds increasing as the day wears on Saturday, probably peaking overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds along the New Jersey shore and the coast of Long Island will likely gust to 40 to 50 mph at times as the low moves northward. This storm is going to weaken Sunday but it will take a while to get it out of the way. This probably means clouds and some rain will linger into Monday. Over the weekend temperatures will be in the 60s much of the time, especially when it is raining.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
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