Risk of Back to Back Storms Grows For Northeast & Mid Atlantic Snow Weekend & Rain & Wind Storm Tuesday

Risk of Back to Back Storms Grows For Northeast & Mid Atlantic

Snow Weekend & Rain & Wind Storm Tuesday

Risk of Back to Back Storms Grows For Northeast & Mid Atlantic

Snow Weekend & Rain & Wind Storm Tuesday

The first of 2 storm systems will be impacting the Eastern US this weekend spreading rain and snow up the coast through the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast. For many areas this will be the first accumulating snowfall but as always there is still a rather high degree of uncertainty regarding the set up and snow amounts. However it does seem clear that we will likely break the snow drought for much of the Northeast and interior Mid Atlantic this weekend.

We are 4 days away from this first weather event and the best way to approach this is through accumulation risk The Weather Prediction Center or WPC has snow in their long range outlook and we have seen a gradual expansion of the area of risk of at least 3 inches. This now includes a large area of 50 to 70 percent in areas inland. I suspect we will see this area expand further as well as increasing the risk for at least 3 inches along the coast. It is too early to speculate on specific amounts and usual wait until we are inside 72 hours of start time. This means that Thursday would be the day when a first call forecast might be issued.

SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES

WEATHER RADAR

In the meantime we have no issues to speak of today. The persistant upper trough cover the Great Lakes and Northeast is pulling out today so we should defintely see more in the way of sunshine and less in the way of cloud cover. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to middle 40s in most places.

There isn’t much that will be happening from day to day for the rest of the work week at least. We will see dry conditions Wednesday through Friday. We do have weak upper troughs and a weak cold front that will move through. The upper trough Thursday will take a storm off the Southeast US coast out to the east. The cold front to the north will be the leading edge of colder air building in Eastern Canada which sets up the storm system for the weekend. Wednesday should be okay with some sunshine and highs in the low to mid 40s. The upper trough Wednesday night into Thursday morning could set off a few snow showers. Then it will be dry with some sun Thursday and Friday. Thursday highs will be in the low to mid 40s and Friday highs will be in the mid to upper 30s.

Saturday sees low pressure coming out of the Gulf States and moving northeast up the east side of the Appalachians and then redeveloping off the coast just to the east of the Delmarva Peninsula. These things are never simple with borderline cold air at the surface, though it is colder aloft. Weather models have been basically tightening up their tracks and have been remarkably consistent with this storm system in terms of track and intensity. We look for snow to develop inland and snow or a mix of snow and rain developing coast Saturday night and then everyone should see mostly snow Sunday. This should all come to an end sometime Sunday evening.

Most of the time we see storms and then get a break for at least a few days but we have a bit of an usual set up for next week as a strong storm moving into California over the weekend will head east and evolve into a major storm heading for the Great Lakes. This storm will probably bring strong south winds and heavy rain into the Eastern US on the heels of the weekend snow system. This means that what ever falls over the weekend will be washed away by 2 or more inches of rain as well as strong winds. This will more than likely raise some flooding concerns should this verify. It will also bring big snows around the Great Lakes breaking their snow drought as well. Winter is taking hold across the US after a non winter like December across much of the US.

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Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.