Approaching Front Brings Higher Humidity, Some Heat, & Severe Weather Risk Especially Late Sunday

Approaching Front Brings Higher Humidity, Some Heat,

& Severe Weather Risk Especially Late Sunday

Approaching Front Brings Higher Humidity, Some Heat,

& Severe Weather Risk Especially Late Sunday

The last weekend in June is in summer mode and we will dealing with the transition to a hot humid air mass today. That usually remains disruption, an unstable atmosphere and the risk for severe thunderstorms  Saturday the risk zone lies from Ohio into Western and Central Pennsylvania where we have a “slight” risk or 15 percent. To the east we have a marginal risk (5%) for isolated severe thunderstorms and that extends from Eastern Pennsylvania to Northwest New Jersey and the Catskills to the north and into Maryland and Virginia to the south.

Tornado risk is elevated as well with a 2 to 5 percent tornado risk indicated for areas from Ohio to Pennsylvania and Southern New York southward into parts of West Virginia and Maryland. Sunday we see the severe weather risk shifting to the US East Coast from Maine to Southeastern New England southward to the Middle Atlantic states as far south as North Carolina.

Much of the Northeastern US will also see an elevated risk for Tornadoes from Maine southward to North Carolina and that includes all the major metro areas along the I-95 Corridor. While we do see elevated severe weather and tornado risk, it should be emphasized that it does not rain all day and all night long. Also some places could escape rain altogether given the nature of these small scale weather events.

Very warm humid air is moving northeastward and we will see dew points and humidity levels rise today. Look for some sunshine and clouds with more sun and higher temperatures to the south of New York City and more clouds to the north. This impacts high temperatures which in the Lower Hudson Valley to Long Island and points east will be in the mid and upper 70s today while to the south in Southern New Jersey, Southern Pennsylvania and points southward it will be in the low to middle 80s.

SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES

WEATHER RADAR

Satellite and radar loops show rain moving across Upstate New York and New England today and we see thunderstorms in Ohio, Northwest Pennsylvania and  Western New York. The main issue for showers and thunderstorms for the areas along the coast at least will be tonight as a cold front draws closer. We are using the Nam 3km model which is usually very good with convective events.

The main risk time for areas inland north and west of New York City and Philadelphia will be this evening with the coast seeing some weakening thunderstorms moving through overnight. Then we turn to Sunday which is going to be a hot and very humid day. Sunshine will take highs up into the lower 90s in many locations and dew points will rise to 70 or even higher in some places making it a very humid day.

The cold front will approach Sunday afternoon with a line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it and some of those thunderstorms will be severe. Damaging winds is likely the biggest risk from some of these thunderstorms. The line could possibly split in tow with the strongest storms moving through New England and another line of strong storms from Delaware south to North Carolina. We will just have to wait until Sunday to see how the set up on the radars. Behind the front we will see a cooler drier air mass and the first part of next week is going to be nice and dry with sunshine for Monday and Tuesday.

Monday highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Tuesday we will see another day of low humidity and sunshine with highs reaching the low and middle 80s. It will turn hot and humid for Wednesday and for Thursday, the 4th of July holiday. We will likely see no shower or thunderstorm activity Wednesday and perhaps some isolated storms around Thursday. Temperatures will be heading back into the 90s for both days.

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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.